World Class Greater Philadelphia An Economy League Initiative
Each future described presents an array of challenges and opportunities for US metropolitan regions in general and for Greater Philadelphia specifically. Prosperity is possible in each of them, but it isn’t guaranteed in any.
As different as these possible futures are, however, there are some key factors for success that thread through all of them. These key success factors represent sound investments for Greater Philadelphia regardless of how global
and national trends and forces play out. The following items stand out across all four plausible futures.
business creation & entrepreneurship
Making the most of economic opportunities across all of the futures depends upon supporting business growth in industries where Greater Philadelphia has a competitive advantage. In the America in the Driver’s Seat and Partners in Hard Times stories, a culture of entrepreneurship is supported by US research and innovation in the former and by selling ideas to large international corporations in the latter. In the Global Village future, business creation is driven by foreign investors seeking access to US consumer markets. While high failure rates and scarce venture capital discourages entrepreneurs in Tight Belts, the most promising path to business growth in that future is via global acquisition. The sectors that drive US growth vary across the scenarios—services and advanced manufacturing in Global Village, innovation and life sciences in Driver’s Seat, professional services in Tight Belts, and government and nonprofits in Hard Times. Metropolitan areas’ ability to focus on their industry strengths and support entrepreneurship significantly increases their chances of success.
education & talent development
Just as being able to focus on the region’s most competitive sectors is crucial to success in each future, being able to provide quality education and a strong talent pipeline to meet business needs drives prosperity across the scenarios. In futures where the US has failed to significantly improve education outcomes, especially in the science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM ) fields, US economic growth stagnates and talent flees overseas. The Driver’s Seat and Hard Times scenarios that experience successful education reform see economic growth that, in turn, spurs immigration of talented workers. In the Tight Belts future, regions that are able to provide paths to opportunity for lower-skilled populations have an advantage. Conversely, regions that experience a mismatch between workers’ skill levels and available jobs strain under economic and social tensions.
higher education
Across all the futures, a well-established higher education base plays a key role in leveraging research and innovation, business growth, and a skilled workforce. Higher education institutions serve as major exporters, whether by attracting foreign students in the Tight Belts or Driver’s Seat futures or by establishing satellite campuses and online course offerings abroad, as in the Global Village future. In addition to tailoring educational and training offerings to meet industry needs, universities also can lead the way in partnering with secondary schools and lower-skilled workers to maximize economic opportunities in the Partners in Hard Times and Driver’s Seat futures. The region’s institutions of higher education are such considerable current assets that it is possible to still
envision a robust role in the region’s economy even if research and development resources end up going overseas, as they do in the Global Village and Tight Belts futures.
international connections
Global connections and the international flow of commerce and workers figure prominently across all four scenarios. In particular in the Global Village and Tight Belts futures where the locus of economic power shifts away from America, connecting to international opportunities is crucial to economic vitality. Regions compete for foreign investment, US headquarters of global corporations, and immigrant workers. Several scenarios also emphasize the importance of international airports and seaports to move people and goods. Across all futures, those regions that proactively make the most of global connections fare better, and in the Driver’s Seat future, the US takes on a leadership role brokering major global alliances. Greater Philadelphia’s location on the East Coast and relative to European and growing South American markets presents a leg up in expanding these global connections.
infrastructure
In the Tight Belts and Hard Times high energy cost futures, regions that are able to maintain strong regional transportation, and in particular transit, infrastructure are more successful in attracting and retaining businesses and residents. In the lower cost energy futures, the extent to which regions can manage congestion and modernize their infrastructure impacts their competitiveness. These investments also tie directly to metropolitan areas’ ability to make international connections.
Efficient government & public/private partnerships
While the futures tend to focus on global and national economic forces and markets, governments play an important role in facilitating growth and quality of life. In the Driver’s Seat scenario, strong economic growth puts government in the position to innovate and provide improved services. Both in the resource-rich Driver’s Seat future and the resource-constrained Partners in Hard Times future, public-private partnerships drive advances in health care, education, and public safety. The more extreme economic challenges of Tight Belts force local government consolidation. In each scenario, governments that make the most efficient use of internal resources and leverage external ones help set the stage for success.
